Mullins festival fall and unseat record since 2003 Versus NJ Henderson

An interesting piece by Tony Keenan caught my eye, prompting me to take a deeper look at the record of Willie Mullins’s festival record with falls and unseats. Tony mentioned that Mullins, reportedly, is not a big fan of schooling horses.  The trainer’s record at last week’s festival suggested that such a theory was not sound. But it seemed odd for a man who pays such attention to detail to pursue a path that, overall, damaged the chances of his hurdlers and chasers.

Tony looked at the chasers in particular.  Using the superb Horseracebase.com I dug a bit deeper, taking in hurdlers as well and going back to 2003.

2003 onward

Since 2003 Mullins has had 417 Cheltenham Festival runners over obstacles.  35 of those fell: 8.39%, and 9 unseated: 2.15%.

139 of those runners were in chases. 21 fell: 15.1%, and 4 unseated: 2.88%

 

2018 alone

Last week he had 57 runners over obstacles. 10 fell: 17.5%, and 1 unseated: 1.75%

17 of the 57 were steeplechases. There were 6 fallers: 35.2%, and no unseats.

 

Final comparison figures

Overall Mullins faller percentage in all festival jumps races since 2003:  8.39%

Faller percentage for festival 2018 – 17.5%

Overall chasing falls: 15.1%

2018 chasing falls: 35.2%

Overall hurdle falls: 5.6%

2018 hurdle falls: 10%

No question this year’s festival was an annus horribilis for Wille Mullins regarding falls and unseats, but his long term record suggests it was a one off.

Still, looking at Nicky Henderson over the same period, Willie has work to do:

 

NJ Henderson festival fall & unseat record since 2003

481 runners over obstacles suffered 17 falls: 3.53%, and 7 unseats: 1.4% (Mullins: 8.39% & 2.15%)

218 runners over fences suffered 9 falls: 4.12%, and 4 unseats: 1.8% (Mullins: 15.1% & 2.88%)

263 runners over hurdles produced 8 fallers: 3.04%,  and 3 unseats: 1.1% (Mullins: 5.6% & 1.8%)

 

Here are a couple of screenshots from Horseracebase.com showing just  two of the many hundreds of queries you can run. There is a three-day free trial although it does take a while to find your way around. Links above are not affiliates; I receive no payment from Horseracebase, I just like what they do.

Mullins all fes

 

hendo all time.png

 

mullins 2018

Goodbye to another festival

Despite the ground, it was another fantastic festival and I hope you enjoyed it and managed to make a profit despite my duff TV Tips.

None for tomorrow, you’ll be glad to hear, but hopefully back next week.  If I spot anything in the meantime, I’ll post a “recommended’ bet.

All the best.

Joe

TV Tips for Day 4, Friday, Festival

Due to a mini domestic crisis, I’ll have to keep it short, so I’ll post selections only without the ‘workings’. You’re advised, as in the previous three days, to use Skybet for the first race and Boylesports for the others. Hopefully I’ll be in a position to update after racing.

1.30  Redicean

2.10  Flying Tiger

2.50 Paisley Park EW

3.30  Saphir Du Rheu EW

4.10  Wonderful Charm

Enjoy the racing and don’t bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile.

Joe

TV Tips, Festival, Thursday, Day 3

Post-Racing update: Terrefort ran up against a decent horse and wasn’t quite good enough in the end. Louis Vac Pouch is a much better horse than that; Hobbs had a terrible season by his standards and I sympathise with him and the yard.  I was yelling at Townend to let Un De Sceaux go when he began pulling for his head – absolutely pointless wasting a horse’s energy fighting with it – especially with Un De Sceaux; there’s always going to be just one winner in that contest, as Ruby quickly accepted last year. By the time Townend gave in, he’d burnt a fair amount of fuel.

Time for me to accept The New One doesn’t stay that trip. Always thought him a stayer but he had no excuse, travelled well, and just found nothing. Hopefully you backed Penhill too based on the post last week.

Guitar Pete hardly jumped a fence. He’d have finished much closer with a good round although I doubt he’d have won. Anyway, we go into tomorrow (counting the free bets) with a deficit of £23.52

 

Another great day’s racing on Wednesday. There have been some thrilling finishes despite widely held misgivings (including mine) that there might be many messy races.

Onto Thursday…unless otherwise recommended, you should place your bets with Boylesports for everything after the 1.30. Boylesports have a good free bet offer covering first and last fence fallers and the fav winning.

Best bookie for the 1.30 is Skybet who will refund stakes on all losers up to £20.

 

Cheltenham

1.30 JLT

Hopefully you took my tip from March 5th and backed Terrefort at 8/1. He’s half that price now and I’m still confident he will run a big race.

Terrefort  4/1  Skybet

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2.10  Pertemps

I backed Louis Vac Pouch in his first outing at Chepstow where he was a shade unlucky in a very hot race.  Trainer Hobbs has had a terrible season, suggesting he’s had some sort of virus in the yard. I can only hope that Louis Vac Pouch has bot been affected because I fancy him here quite strongly.

He has his quirks; can be keen and also idled badly at Aintree but he has plenty of talent and should have improved again a fair bit.

Louis Vac Pouch  8/1 Boylesports

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2.50 Ryanair

Cue Card is a very dear favourite of mine, as he is with almost everyone in racing, but I think he had a really hard race last time behind Waiting Patiently and I’m not willing to take the chance that he has recovered.

Un De Sceaux won this last year and I think he’ll win it again. His record speaks for itself and it’s a shame Ruby has to miss the ride, although Un De Sceaux carted him last year. Best backed with Coral who refund stakes on fallers as a free bet

Un De Sceaux  11/10  Coral

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3.30 Stayers Hurdle

Last week I tipped Penhill in this in anticipation of a gamble driven by his owner Tony Bloom, who landed a huge touch in last year’s Cesarewitch.

But he’s drifted from 8/1 to 12/1 and that suggests I’ve read this wrong, unless we see heavy support for him in the morning.

So, I’ll revert to my original tip from back in December, The New One. I’ve always thought staying was his true talent although his trainer obviously does not agree having campaigned him for so long at 2 miles.

But eh was a fine stayer as a youngster, running some great races over 2m5f in bad ground. He will do for me.

The New One  14/1 Boylesports

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4.50 Brown & Merribelle

Guitar Pete looks fine value at 20/1. He won a decent race here in December, albeit because of the sad demise of leader Starchitect. But he’s a good horse who’s been improving. He’s basically a sound jumper but can just lose concentration at times. Hopefully, he’ll keep his mind on the job throughout.

Best back him with Coral in case he does fall.

Guitar Pete  20/1  Coral

 

Enjoy the racing and don’t bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile.

Joe