TV Tips Saturday 24 March 2018

Post-racing update: after a poor Cheltenham, we carried a deficit of £30.52 into today. I don’t know when Cold Shoulder was withdrawn as I placed my bets last night and have been out. Hopefully you had the EW treble on as the double paid £11.70 and the EW single on Just A Thought paid 4.50 giving a profit on the day of £10.20 and reducing the 2018 deficit for TV tips to £20.32

 

Just three jump races today. I rarely tip on the Flat so will forego the Doncaster TV races and concentrate on Newbury. I’ll update the P&L after racing

2.05

Shanroe Santos is becoming something of a jinx horse for this blog, which tipped him three outings ago when he failed to finish. Of course he won next time in a non-televised race, restoring confidence enough to feature as another TV tip last time. Still in with a fine chance, he tipped up two out. I shall leave him alone today. There’s an argument that he’s better right handed anyway.

The selection is Dawson City who won in the style of an improving horse last time, albeit over half a mile farther than today. The testing ground and a good gallop will help his chance.

Dawson City  8/1

 

2.40

In a tricky race, I like Cold Shoulder who’s been keen in all his hurdle races but seems to be learning with each one. I like the way he kept on last time after wearing himself out quite a bit running so free so long under a claimer. J Davies takes over here for trainer Tom Symonds, who doesn’t have many winners, but that helps the price.

It’s a step up in class, but I believe Cold Shoulder will outrun his big odds and should be backed EW in the hope all 8 stand their ground.

Cold Shoulder  25/1

 

3.15

Just A Thought is highly consistent; 3rd twice in her career, 2nd five times and twice a winner. On that record alone she’s a very fair price here and I recommend an each way bet.

Just A Thought  14/1

 

If all 8 look to be running in the 2.05 and 3.15, I’ll be having a £1 EW treble on the above and advise that you do the same along with the usual £1 single bets.

Enjoy the racing and don’t bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile.

Joe

TV Tips for Day 4, Friday, Festival

Due to a mini domestic crisis, I’ll have to keep it short, so I’ll post selections only without the ‘workings’. You’re advised, as in the previous three days, to use Skybet for the first race and Boylesports for the others. Hopefully I’ll be in a position to update after racing.

1.30  Redicean

2.10  Flying Tiger

2.50 Paisley Park EW

3.30  Saphir Du Rheu EW

4.10  Wonderful Charm

Enjoy the racing and don’t bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile.

Joe

TV Tips, Festival, Thursday, Day 3

Post-Racing update: Terrefort ran up against a decent horse and wasn’t quite good enough in the end. Louis Vac Pouch is a much better horse than that; Hobbs had a terrible season by his standards and I sympathise with him and the yard.  I was yelling at Townend to let Un De Sceaux go when he began pulling for his head – absolutely pointless wasting a horse’s energy fighting with it – especially with Un De Sceaux; there’s always going to be just one winner in that contest, as Ruby quickly accepted last year. By the time Townend gave in, he’d burnt a fair amount of fuel.

Time for me to accept The New One doesn’t stay that trip. Always thought him a stayer but he had no excuse, travelled well, and just found nothing. Hopefully you backed Penhill too based on the post last week.

Guitar Pete hardly jumped a fence. He’d have finished much closer with a good round although I doubt he’d have won. Anyway, we go into tomorrow (counting the free bets) with a deficit of £23.52

 

Another great day’s racing on Wednesday. There have been some thrilling finishes despite widely held misgivings (including mine) that there might be many messy races.

Onto Thursday…unless otherwise recommended, you should place your bets with Boylesports for everything after the 1.30. Boylesports have a good free bet offer covering first and last fence fallers and the fav winning.

Best bookie for the 1.30 is Skybet who will refund stakes on all losers up to £20.

 

Cheltenham

1.30 JLT

Hopefully you took my tip from March 5th and backed Terrefort at 8/1. He’s half that price now and I’m still confident he will run a big race.

Terrefort  4/1  Skybet

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2.10  Pertemps

I backed Louis Vac Pouch in his first outing at Chepstow where he was a shade unlucky in a very hot race.  Trainer Hobbs has had a terrible season, suggesting he’s had some sort of virus in the yard. I can only hope that Louis Vac Pouch has bot been affected because I fancy him here quite strongly.

He has his quirks; can be keen and also idled badly at Aintree but he has plenty of talent and should have improved again a fair bit.

Louis Vac Pouch  8/1 Boylesports

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2.50 Ryanair

Cue Card is a very dear favourite of mine, as he is with almost everyone in racing, but I think he had a really hard race last time behind Waiting Patiently and I’m not willing to take the chance that he has recovered.

Un De Sceaux won this last year and I think he’ll win it again. His record speaks for itself and it’s a shame Ruby has to miss the ride, although Un De Sceaux carted him last year. Best backed with Coral who refund stakes on fallers as a free bet

Un De Sceaux  11/10  Coral

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3.30 Stayers Hurdle

Last week I tipped Penhill in this in anticipation of a gamble driven by his owner Tony Bloom, who landed a huge touch in last year’s Cesarewitch.

But he’s drifted from 8/1 to 12/1 and that suggests I’ve read this wrong, unless we see heavy support for him in the morning.

So, I’ll revert to my original tip from back in December, The New One. I’ve always thought staying was his true talent although his trainer obviously does not agree having campaigned him for so long at 2 miles.

But eh was a fine stayer as a youngster, running some great races over 2m5f in bad ground. He will do for me.

The New One  14/1 Boylesports

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4.50 Brown & Merribelle

Guitar Pete looks fine value at 20/1. He won a decent race here in December, albeit because of the sad demise of leader Starchitect. But he’s a good horse who’s been improving. He’s basically a sound jumper but can just lose concentration at times. Hopefully, he’ll keep his mind on the job throughout.

Best back him with Coral in case he does fall.

Guitar Pete  20/1  Coral

 

Enjoy the racing and don’t bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile.

Joe

 

 

 

 

 

TV Tips Cheltenham, Wednesday, Day 2 2018

Post-racing update: a somewhat disappointing day although William Henry tried his heart out under 11.10, and Altior was a galloping definition of class, because he was hating every minute and his class got him home.

We carry forward a deficit of £19.52

 

Cracking racing yesterday. I really enjoyed watching it and such a shame we lost two horses; condolences to their connections.

Cheltenham

1.30 Ballymore

Samcro was most impressive last time, but the disappointments Elliot suffered today make me a wee bit uneasy about this favourite. We shall see.

The one that caught my eye is the 100/1 chance Coolanly. I don’t know much about the horse but noticed Brennan had chosen to ride it rather than Aye Aye Charlie who’s rated a fair bit higher than Coolanly. The latter is very lightly raced having run in just one hurdle. But his trainer is no fool, nor is his jockey. This horse must have come on a great deal since that run in early December.

Several bookies offer 100/1, for the brave among you but I suggest you use Betfair Sportsbook or Paddy Power and back him EW without the fav at 50/1.

Coolanly – without Samcro market – 50/1 (Betfair&Paddy Power)

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2.10 RSA

Rather than an EW bet, I’m recommending 2 win bets here – one on Black Corton and one on Elegant Escape. The form of these two is closely linked, but I slightly favour Black Corton who’s had so many superb rides from Bryony Frost, a fine chase jockey who knows the importance of rhythm.

Black Corton 8/1 (suggest you bet with Boylesports; free bet if 2nd or 3rd to fav or if falling at first/last)

Elegant Escape  11/1 (Hills)

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2.50 Coral Cup

I tipped William Henry last time when he won at Kempton. I think this horse is bordering on high class and that there’s a fair bit of improvement in him. He has 11.10 to carry, eased slightly by James Bowen’s 3lb claim, but I think he can win this.

He’s joint fav at the moment, but just in case he does not go off favourite, it’s worth having the bet with Boylesports who offer money back if 2nd or 3rd to the fav, or if he falls at the first/last.

William Henry – Boylesports – 8/1

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3.30 Queen Mother Champion Chase

Altior ought to win this, despite hot competition from Min and Douvan. I’ve always thought the latter over rated, especially in the jumping department, and I’m surprised Ruby has chosen him over Min, who was 2nd to Altior on the 2016 Supreme, probably the best novice hurdle ever run.

You can get 11/10 about Altior who should be closer to 4/6 in my book. Doubtless the lameness scare has affected his price but Henderson wouldn’t risk this superstar if in any doubt about his readiness.

Altior  11/10

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4.10 Cross Country

Many don’t care for this race over the banks and odd fences. I love it. It’s great to see the way the runners handle all the different challenges. Elliott’s pair have been the big talking horses on the run-up – Cause of Causes and Tiger Roll, but I like Enda Bolger’s Auverngat. He was 4th in this last year on good ground, and this soft going should help him improve on that as he’s a stamina horse.

He looked like going past Josie’s Orders last time and surging away but began idling when he hit the front. To his credit he picked up again and battled hard to win by a short head. Fighters are what you need in a race like this. His jumping is a slight concern, but he’s young and, I think, improving in that sphere.

Auvergnat  8/1 with Boylesports (free bet concession as mentioned above)

Enjoy the racing and don’t bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile. I’ll update profit/loss after racing.

Joe

 

 

 

 

 

TV Tips Cheltenham, Tuesday, Day 1 2018

Post race update: Elgin was the big disappointment for me, finishing 5th when we needed him to be 4th at worst. The little mare Midnight Tour at 33/1 almost put us well in front, caught close home by the Mullins horse. Again, had we been beaten by the long odds on fav, we’d have been paid at 33/1

Never mind. Tomorrow is another day. Counting the free bet offers, we had total stakes of £7 and a return of £7.60 so we carry forward to tomorrow a deficit of £14.42

Another festival has finally rolled around and this will be a meeting where we will see more than one shock result. The going will be the most testing it has been in 23 years, the situation worsened perhaps by the prospect of what Henderson and King described as ‘puddingy’ ground in places.  If that ‘puddingy’ effect is in enough places, we will see more than the usual number of horses pulled up, with plenty finishing very tired.

Proper heavy wet ground is almost always preferable to the sticky stuff as horses can get their feet out of it relatively easily, whereas the gluey surface just sucks them down.

But there’s nothing we can do about it. Jockeys will have much more serious problems than punters, as pace judgement will be everything. If you are inclined toward in-running bets, a few good horses could be looking under strong pressure or sitting a long way back mid race resulting in massive price drifts on Betfair. I’d be surprised if two or three such sloggers don’t catch the others up the hill.

Anyway, onto the tips. We start the meeting with a deficit on the TV Tips of £15.02 and I’m hopeful more than confident that this can be turned into a profit by the end of the week. Good luck, and let’s hope that all participants come home safe.

Cheltenham

1.30 Supreme Novices Hurdle

Regular readers will know I always try to find the value bet at a working man’s price, but I cannot get away from Getabird in The Supreme. He’s unbeaten and, more importantly, seems to be improving at a rate of knots.  He won a Grade 2 last time in the manner of a horse who could be anything, his jumping – good enough from the start – getting increasingly slicker as he went on.  They’d gone a good pace throughout yet he still drew clear in the straight in the most taking fashion.

I’d like to see what price he is for the 2019 Champion Hurdle. If I can find something on that before the off of this race I’ll update this section.

Ruby’s tactics here will be fascinating. The Betfair showed that Kalashnikov wants a rattling pace that maximises stamina requirements and I think Ruby will go quick-slow-quick here although there’s a chance David Bass on First Flow won’t stand for that and will want to go on.  Bass is very good and highly experienced but whether he’ll have the confidence to effectively question Ruby’s pace judgement at a meeting where Walsh is a giant, well, that’s another matter.  Judgement will be complicated further by the unusually testing ground.  All the jocks have their own ‘festival pace’ built in – normally a stride faster than they go anywhere else. But the ground will see them all guessing, even Ruby. But I’d trust his guess much more than any other rider (although Geraghty is good on pace and I like Daryl Jacob too as a pace judge).

I suspect that this week, good jockeys might well matter more than good horses.

If you bet online I suggest you back Getabird with Skybet who offer money back as a free bet up to £20 if your selection loses. NB Free bet must be used within 3 days and it’s worth reading the other terms and conditions.

Getabird – Skybet 13/8

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2.05  Arkle Chase

Footpad and Saint Calvados have been a joy to watch this season. Footpad’s jumping accuracy has been astonishing for a novice. Saint Calvados has earned many plaudits too for his fencing, but he’s much less economical than Footpad; exuberance rather than fluency is his trademark. But to my eye, he’s just a touch stiff backed and doesn’t flex enough to get his rear end consistently into a safe position. He kind of hurdles his fences, and when it comes off it looks fantastic, but he leaves his hind legs quite low too often for my liking. His natural front-running exuberance is wonderful to see (he reminds me of a horse from the 1970s called Even Keel), but it also means that he gives himself a hard race. Altough he won impressively at Warwick last time, I thought he looked as though he’d taken a lot out of himself. I’d love to be proved wrong as it would be fantastic to see the small yard of Harry Whittington win this.

Impressive as Footpad has been, Petit Mouchoir was his better over hurdles and I think he’ll prove here that this will apply over fences too. He’s a high class horse who was third in last year’s Champion Hurdle, and he won the Irish Champion Hurdle.

Petit Mouchoir’s fencing debut was almost as impressive as Footpad’s, bar a slight mistake at the last. He then picked up an injury and was off for 108 days before turning out in the Irish Arkle Chase against Footpad. Petit Mouchoir was very sloppy at his early fences, making one particularly bad blunder that turned him sideways. That has to be a slight concern but I’m sure trainer De Bromhead will have done plenty of schooling to sharpen to the edge he showed on his debut.

Petit Mouchoir  3/1

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2.50 Ultima Handicap Chase

Cogry is too big a price here and looks best value in a typically tricky Cheltenham handicap. He’s had a relatively quiet season for him with just 5 runs so far. When he completes a race he is most consistent, but he’s had his share of ill luck at fences, hampered/baulked when unseating or falling a couple of times, and twice he has pulled up, simply not running his race for some reason.

But he goes well at Cheltenham and has won here twice. Jockey Jamie Bargary knows him well and takes a valuable 3lbs off. Bargary’s confidence should be high too having ridden a big winner at Sandown on Saturday. I’m hopeful Cogry will outstay them up the hill and I’m confident that his price is 8 or 9 points too big.

Cogry  25/1

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3.30 Champion Hurdle

Hopefully you took my advice in the blog piece I posted after Elgin won at Wincanton and backed him each way for this at 16/1 in the without Buveur D’Air market.  Call Me Lord gave a massive boost to that form on Saturday and I think Elgin can put in a big run in the Champion.

He’s down to 8/1 with Hills now (the only bookie at the time of writing I can see on Oddschecker that’s offering betting without Buveur D’Air). That’s about the price he should have been after Wincanton and for those who’ve not yet had a bet, he’s my EW selection here.

Buveur D’Air will be very hard to beat, but it’s far from impossible that Elgin will finish second to him, in which case you get paid at 8/1 for the win part. Assuming Elgin and Buveur D’Air finish in the first four, you’ll be paid the EW part, giving you a profit.

Elgin EW at 8/1 in ‘without Buveur D’Air’ market

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4.10 Mares Hurdle

The wondermare Apple’s Jade is a very short price here and the best bet, once again, lies in the without the fav market. The one I’m going for each way is the mare who finished 6th of 17 in this last year when it was a hotter race. She was beaten a shade under ten lengths by Apple’s Jade that day and I very much doubt she’ll turn that around. But she has every chance of being in the first four and might just finish second to land the ‘win’ price of 33/1.

Her name is Midnight Tour, trained by Alan King. Davy Russell rides her for only the second time after winning on her at Cheltenham last April.  He rides Cheltenham superbly and it’s interesting that King’s stable jockey Wayne Hutchinson misses out on this ride. She’s not been in great form recently but has had her fair share of bad luck in her last three races. She’s better than she has shown so far this season and is overpriced at 33/1 in the without fav market.

Midnight Tour  EW at 33/1 (Bet365 & Hills) in ‘without Apple’s Jade’ market.

Enjoy the racing and don’t bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile.

Joe

TV Tips Saturday 10th March

Post-race update: TV tips now running at a £15.02 loss for 2018

 

Apologies for the late blog post; all my attention has been on Cheltenham and I simply didn’t have time to go through today’s TV races. However, the Imperial Cup  has always been a ‘big’ race for those of my generation. First run in 1947, I have many fond memories of some of the winners in the 1970s – horses like Solomon II, Lanzarote, Flash Imp and Winter Melody. So, I must have a go at picking the winner.

The relatively unexposed Master of Irony is my choice. At this trip in this class of race, the track and ground should suit him very well indeed as he needs farther than 2 miles. His first run in a Class 1 was at Newbury last time where he was stone last and going nowhere jumping the final flight. A hundred yards out he finally hit gear and began accelerating, beaten just over two lengths in the end and would have won in another fifty yards.

I’m hoping to see Richard Johnson coming late up the Sandown hill to snatch today’s Imperial Cup then.

2.25 Sandown: Master of Irony 11/1

Enjoy the racing and don’t bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile. I’ll update the profit/loss figure after racing.

Joe

TV Tips Saturday 24 February 2018

Post racing update: enjoyable day’s racing in which we saw at least one future star in Redicean; possibly two given the way Global Citizen won.

£7 on 5 races today: 2 winners at 4/7 and 10/11 gives a return of £3.48 adding £3.52 to the deficit which is now £14.02

 

Two of today’s TV races are at Lingfield’s all weather track.  I have no interest in all weather racing so will not be tipping anything there.

But there’s some good pre festival racing at Kempton and Newcastle so let’s see if we can make further inroads into the  £10.51 deficit.

As usual, I will update the figures after racing.

If you are new to the blog, best read this page before having a bet

Kempton

1.50

I’ve been impressed by Cyrname this season and won’t oppose the odds on chance in a race where his trainer has sent out seven of the last ten winners.

Cyrname 4/7

 

2.25

Redicean has accelerated in the style of a class horse on his last two runs and I won’t oppose him despite short-priced favourites being beaten here in the last two runnings (Charlie Parcs and Gibralfaro).

If there’s to be a shock I suspect it will come in the shape of the filly Harmonise who’s in receipt of 10lbs from the fav. She ran a fine race at Ascot at 50/1 on her debut, still in with a chance when brought down at the last. Still very green, she then won at Plumpton.  At her price I am tempted, but Redicean looks a top prospect who could go very close in the Triumph Hurdle next month.

Redicean 10/11

 

3.00 Kempton

Since 2007, Nicky Henderson has won this race 4 times and Alan King has won 3. King has two in the race, the more fancied being the ex-flat horse Scarlet Dragon. On flat ratings, there’s not that much between Scarlet Dragon, Carntop and Henderson’s Humphrey Bogart. Scarlet Dragon holds a Supreme entry whereas Humphrey Bogart has not been entered at the festival. That fact makes it difficult to work out if the non-entry is a positive or a negative. Are they thinking he is a horse for the long term who doesn’t want a tough festival race at this stage?

Who knows?

He was 5th in the 2016 Derby and has run only twice in Britain since. At the price, I think it’s worth taking a chance with him.

Humphrey Bogart 9/1

 

3.35

I’ve always liked Theatre Guide and he’s been kept unusually fresh this season, reportedly with this race in mind. He was third in it last year and won it in 2016. He has his ground and track and despite the big weight he will run his usual honest race and could well win it.

I’ve tipped As De Mee for the National. His trainer put us away last weekend saying Black Corton would improve a lot for what was supposedly a Cheltenham prep race. He’s saying the same about As De Mee here in that it’s his Grand National prep, but that race is still almost 7 weeks off, so I’ll have £1 on him too.

Theatre Guide 16/1

As De Mee 18/1

 

Newcastle

2.45

If you have any lengthy tasks today, make a start on them when this race goes off; you’ll be done in time to see the finish of this extended 4 miler on heavy ground.  Sometimes I think the finishes of such races do more damage to racing’s image than any whip use. But ours is not to reason why.

It’s a race that’s been won a number of times by small yards and I’m recommending two outsiders rather than have an each way bet on one. My main fancy is Silver Tassie trained by Micky Hammond whose yard is in fine form with a 26% win rate and 47% place rate.  Silver Tassie’s been around a long time, but older horses have a decent record in this with two 11-y-olds and two 10-y-olds winning in the past ten years.

He’s a game type if a bit slow and in his only two runs well beyond three miles he’s been pulled up. But he looks to me like a stayer and he’s fine on this ground. He’s broken blood vessels, and there’s an obvious risk there. But he seems to be coming to form having run well last time here behind Smooth Stepper, the first time that today’s jockey Alain Cawley rode him.

On past form, he’s the same horse at these weights as Baywing. They’ve met twice and Silver Tassie has come out on top in both. He’s four times the price of Baywing in this and he will do for the main selection.

The one I like for a saver is Themanfrom Minella, another who has stamina to prove but he’s ground it out like a dyed in the wool stayer in his last two wins. Blinkers appear to have made quite a difference to him and he is also from a smallish yard.

Silver Tassie 33/1

Themanfrom Minella 16/1

 

Enjoy the racing and don’t bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile.

Joe