TV Tips Saturday 28th April 2018

Post-race update: well, rather a tame end to the season. Winnerless today, but the blog has finished £11.12 in profit on calendar year 2018 for TV tips. Current profit on recommended tips for 2018 is £24.70. All figures to a £1 stake.

I might tip the occasional runner on the flat via the ‘recommended’ tips page, and I hope to see you back for the new jumps season.

We’ve reached the final day of the NH season, which makes it the final day too for TV tips on this blog. I’ll review things over the summer; despite managing a profit on both the TV tips and on recommended bets, the blog gets comparatively few visitors these days compared to two or three years ago. Our best figure was close to almost 4,000 visitors one Grand National day.  We see nothing like that these days although attention spans grow ever shorter and reading opportunities ever greater.

Anyway, we bring a profit of £17.12 into today. Let’s see if we can add to it.

Sandown

1.50

I like Act of Valour in this. He showed a good attitude last time at Fakenham and I got the impression the longer straight here and the uphill run-in would suit him well.

Act Of Valour 8/1 (Ladbrokes)


2.25

I suspect Double Shuffle needs a flat track, and I’ve never been a big fan of Top Notch. He’s a nice horse but I believe he has always been a bit overrated and therefore overbet. Art Mauresque has fair form and was arguably made too much use of last time when not seeing out the trip. A more conservative ride here could help, but he still has the stiff finish to deal with.

The value in the race to my eye is O O Seven who goes well right handed and also on this better ground. He’s run two solid races in his only Sandown outings, winning one and finishing second to Yorkhill in the other.

O O Seven 16/1 (general)


3.00

It’s great to see a champion on the last day of the season. Altior ought to win this but he is unbackable at the price. One for watching.


3.35

Regal Encore has been something of a problem horse. In his last 13 outings he’s been pulled up 7 times. Most people avoid him these days but I wonder if Richie McLernon might have found the key in riding him much more prominently this season. He’s usually held up and can race keenly. Perhaps he gets disappointed being so far back or having to fight his rider (Geraghty has ridden him for most of the horse’s chasing career).

He ran a fine race, initially from mid division to finish third under McLernon in the Hennessy (as was). Geraghty was back on board next time at Ascot, dropped him out in his usual fashion, and the horse was pulled up. Back at Ascot next time and reunited with McLernon he was ridden much more prominently and battled on well to beat Minella Daddy (who was tipped that day by this blog).

I think he could surprise a few tomorrow and nominate him as one of my bets here.  The other is a horse who has not run for more than a year because of a tendon injury, Domesday Book. Last time out he won the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham festival on just his second run for his new trainer Stuart Edmunds, whose first decision was to fit the horse with blinkers for his yard debut; he ran his best race for some time in them and they were retained for that Cheltenham victory. He wears them again here and the same jockey, the talented 3lb claimer Gina Andrews is in the saddle.

Edmunds is not a big name trainer, but that helps keep the price long at no cost in the skills department. Edmunds is a very good trainer. Domesday Book is much too big a price and I’ll be backing him.

Regal Encore 18/1 (general)

Domesday Book 50/1 (Boylesports)


I’ll be having £1 on each of the above selections (except Altior) and two £1EW doubles coupling Act Of Valour with Regal Encore and Domesday Book. I suggest you do the same for total stakes of £6.

Enjoy the racing and don’t bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile.

Joe

TV Tips Saturday 21st April

Post racing update: We carried a deficit for the year of £5.12 into today. Thanks to Crosshue Boy at 22/1 and Bigmartre at 4/1 we go into the final weekend of the season (Sandown) with a profit of £17.12 on TV Tips to £1 stakes.


I was intending to hold off on further TV Tips until the last weekend of the jumps season, but it’s a strong jumping card at Ayr, so let’s see if we can get in front.


1.45

Forest Bihan is a classy horse who’s at his best on good ground. I also think this track and ground will suit Foxtail Hill who will probably try to make all but might just get collared by Forest Bihan.  A bet on each is recommended.

Forest Bihan  9/1

Foxtail Hill  20/1


2.20

The Irish horse Crosshue Boy has been in fine form of late and although he’s raced only on easy ground, his action suggests he’ll go well enough on good. He might also prefer going left-handed as he will be today.

Crosshue Boy 20/1


2.55

There are some tough competitors here and I’m expecting good runs from Chesterfield and Claimantakinforgan, but I’m going to side with the unexposed I’m A Game Changer. His trainer Philip Hobbs has had a lousy season by his standards, but this horse won well at Ludlow recently. I was taken both by the way he travelled and his looks. I suspect they’ll try to land this after being very patient with the horse and then send him chasing next season.

I’m A Game Changer 12/1


3.30

Reading between the lines of what his trainer has said, I suspect the hitherto progressive Bigmartre went to Cheltenham last time at the behest of his owner. Trainer Whittington has always talked of him as a flat-track horse.

He hasn’t won over this far, but I think the fastish ground will be a major help.

Bigmartre 4/1


4.05

Blog subscribers will know I’ve tipped Regal Flow at 25/1 here and I’m happy to stick with him on the TV tips too.

I fear The Young Master; more because he has long been a ‘cliff horse’ for me and has just 10 stones in this. If a recent wind op has fixed his major problem (I suspect he has more than one big problem – not the best of jumpers either at times), he’ll go close.

Another old favourite of mine is Silsol, but he too can hit a fence hard at a critical time.

Regal Flow 25/1


 

Enjoy the racing and don’t bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile.

Joe

TV Tips for Saturday April 14th 2018

Post race update: we started today with a deficit on the TV tips of £21.32. Profit on today’s bets was £16.20, so we’ve done not too bad with the price of our TV racing entertainment since January 1st being £5.12. That’s about it for the Jumps season. I’ll be back tipping on the final weekend, what used to be the Whitbread meeting, and will decide after that what to do blogwise. It’s likely I keep the main tips section (recommended bets) going but we will see.

All the best.

Joe

It seems to have passed quickly, but I prefer the three days of the Aintree Festival to the four days at Cheltenham, at least as far as structure is concerned. Anyway, here we are on Grand National day; let’s try to get back in front for 2018 with the blog’s TV tips.

2.25

There are two potential hotpots here vying for short-priced favouritism, but I’d much sooner have an each way bet on Western Ryder as well as a win saver on the Skelton mare Momella. Dan Skelton had planned to keep Momella for Fairyhouse next week. He’s also on record as not wanting to risk her in really soft ground. I can only assume that with Fairyhouse likely to be heavy, he has chosen to take his chance here since she’ll get the 7lbs mare’s allowance from the others, and I’d expect to see money in the market for her. The other one, Western Ryder has been running really well this season and last time in the Supreme finished as though this trip and track – especially with the long straight – would suit well. He beat Friday’s winner Lalor earlier this season and I think he will go very close in this.

Western Ryder EW 8/1 and Momella to win 11/1

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3.00

At first glance it seems folly to take on Petit Mouchoir, a very classy hurdler and a horse I fancied to beat Footpad at the Festival. Petit Mouchoir pretty much lost all chance at Cheltenham by taking on St Calvados in a pounding battle of front running, and Davy Russell will be keen to avoid another nose to nose for the lead here with Shantou Rock. At the prices it’s worth taking a chance with the unexposed mare Lady Buttons. Her trainer Philip Kirby seems determined to win a good handicap hurdle with her, but her racing demeanour suggests to me that she is an awful lot happier pinging fences then hurdles. She could surprise Petit Mouchoir.

Lady Buttons  7/1

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3.40

A fascinating race where a number of horses catch the eye. I’ll go fo ran EW bet on Hammersly Lake who looks to me twice the price he should be. The reason for this is probably that it’s the farthest he’s run over and the softest ground he’s experienced for a long time. But I think this horse improved for a change of scenery. He moved from Nicky Henderson to Charlie Longsdon almost a year ago and, in his next three outings, bettered all previous Racing Post Ratings. He then went to the USA for a £200,000 steeplechase where he was beaten under 5 lengths.  This is his first run since and I think he could surprise a few.

Hammersly Lake EW 40/1

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4.20

Sam Spinner is a short price based on his early season form and on the assumption that his jockey didn’t press on with him at Cheltenham and make it a full stamina test. Young Colliver will be under pressure to make amends here and is likely to be taken on up front – for a while at least – by Coole Cody. All in all, things might not be straightforward. I like Old Guard but I suspect the ground, trip and pace will combine to see him fail. The one who appeals strongly value-wise is Identity Thief. He’s such a long price because this is the farthest he’s tried by quite some way. He’s usually campaigned at 2 miles at pretty much top level (he was 4th in the Champion Hurdle last time) so this is a big trip increase. But he’ll handle the ground and is a classy animal who should have a fine chance of making the first three.

Identity Thief  EW 22/1

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5.15

This is the big one and I can do nothing more than relist the three selections posted as recommended tips already.

Milansbar  33/1

Virgilio  80/1

Final Nudge  50/1

 

NB The prices I list above are taken from Oddschecker. Depending on when you read the blog and place your bet, those prices might have changed. You can check current prices here

 

Enjoy the racing and don’t bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile.

Joe

 

 

 

 

TV Tips Friday 13th April 2018

Post-racing update:  two non runners left us with £5 staked in total for a return of  £7.90 (1 winner, 1 2nd, 1 loser). We go into Saturday carrying a deficit to £1 stakes of £21.32.  Hopefully one or two long-time readers here will have backed Jester Jet in the first, who won the first, a non-TV race, at 20/1. I’ve tipped her two or three times but sadly deserted her today.

2.20

The favourite Global Citizen could be the Next Big Thing so impressive has he been in his last two outings. But a combination of him being very short in the market and, more importantly Irish Roe being far too big, makes me opt for the latter. Irish Roe had been in fine form until running at Newbury last time in the Betfair Hurdle where she flopped badly, running no sort of race and being pulled up. Prior to that she’d run some fine races in very good company and I think the bookies have seriously overreacted to the Newbury defeat. Every horse is entitled to an off day and Irish Roe is worth backing each way.

Irish Roe 20/1  EW Betfair, Paddy Power, Bet365

 

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2.50

I’ve liked Terrefort a lot since first seeing him. I tipped him when 2nd at the Festival and won’t desert him here.

Terrefort 7/2  Betfair, Paddy Power

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3.25

An improver like Balko Des Flos is typically a horse I’d be keen to have a few quid on. But I’m wary of his jumping style; he seems scrappy at best and downright sloppy at times and it speaks volumes for his engine that he’s achieved what he has. But these Mildmay fences just might catch him out and, at the short price, I’m not willing to take the chance. Min is another whose jumping does not convince me; he can look babyish and lanky at times. Min also needs to prove he gets this trip in a truly run race and that he’s over his Cheltenham exertions. He too is very short in the market.

I’ll take a chance with Cloudy Dream, who’s been called more names than L’Ami Serge has. But he is – touch wood – usually a fine jumper and has run really well here before. Track and ground should be fine and he is the choice.

Cloudy Dream 12/1  Betfair, Paddy Power

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4.05

It’s more than 2 years since Art Mauresque raced on soft ground, a surface he’s run on just 4 time since coming from France where he won on very soft ground. He’s known now as a good ground horse and that has helped his price here.  I think he might be improving and is worth taking a chance with. He ran well behind the top class Waiting Patiently when 2nd at Kempton (good to soft), then went well for a long way (arguably being made too much use of by young Cobden) over 3 miles last time when his stamina seemed to run out. Nick Scholfield, who has ridden the horse in all 6 of his UK victories takes over in the saddle. At this 20f trip he can make amends, although he’ll need plenty of luck in a field this size over the Grand National fences.

Art Mauresque 20/1  Bet365: Wm Hill

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4.40

The two at the top of the market in this took part in the Albert Bartlett at the festival, a race in which there are no easy runs. They’re both pretty short here too and I’d rather go with the improving mare Roksana. The Skeltons brought her along quietly until moving her suddenly up in class to win a Grade 2 at Newbury last time, her first venture into handicap company. Her two runs before that were easyish victories at Fontwell and Plumpton, although between those two races, from a total of 19 runners have come a total of 12 wins (inc Roksana) and 7 places.

She races as though she’d prefer better ground but has won on soft and on heavy. She also looks like she still has quite a bit to learn about racing which gives me confidence that there is probably still a fair bit of improvement to come. This is a step up in trip but she stayed on well last time in soft ground and, on breeding, it shouldn’t be a problem. Her sole half-sibling, Robin Roe, showed bags of stamina to win at Aintree in 2016 (he too is a Skelton horse although he’s been out injured for some time). Her sire has a solid strike rate at around this trip.

Roksana 12/1 Bet365  Skybet  Ladbrokes

 

In the 4.05, Skybet will pay 6 places on each way bets and in the 4.40, 4 places, and I recommend as part of today’s stakes you include a £1 EW double with that firm on Art Mauresque (16/1) and Roksana (12/1).

Enjoy the racing and don’t bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile.

Joe

 

TV Tips Thursday 12th April 2018

Post racing update: a mixed day and I must now accept that Bristol De Mai is not the horse I thought he was, although his second place did get us a small profit. Grand Vision fell, Diakali carted his rider, who did the right thing in not fighting with him. Hard to believe that given the ease with which We Have A Dream won, allied to his strength in the market, they bothered bringing the disappointing Beau Gosse from France. Anyway, Bentelimar scooted home in fine fashion, helping ensure a £7.10 profit on the day. We go into Friday carrying a deficit to £1 stakes of £24.22

Another Grand National meeting rolls around, extending what is already a long path for me back through the years. My first vivid memory of Aintree was when I was out with my father one afternoon. We met a friend of his who set about describing with considerable drama how a rank outsider, Foinavon, had just won the Grand National.

More than fifty years have passed since then, five of which I spent working at Aintree in the mid 1990s. The meeting always brings excitement as well as memories for me and I hope I can tip and back some winners.

Let’s get started.

2.20

Given that she never settled in the Triumph Hurdle, Apple’s Shakira did remarkably well to finish 4th in the race having taken so much out of herself, and, at first glance, I thought she’d be my automatic pick for this. But the race also features her stablemate, We Have A Dream, unbeaten in four races in the UK and in the formidable ownership if Munir and Souede, who have some top notch animals.

Trainer Nicky Henderson is on record as saying he wouldn’t like to choose between these two (although Nicky often says ‘more than his prayers’, to quote an old Irish phrase). What struck me when looking through the field is that another Munir Souede horse comes from France to run here – Beau Gosse. He’s 18/1 while Apple’s Shakira and We Have A Dream dispute favouritism at around 2/1.

Reportedly the owners’ retained jockey was ‘given the choice’ and picked we Have A Dream. But why even mention he’d be given the choice when it would seem a no-brainer? Why go to the trouble of bringing the horse across the channel? The trainer of Beau Gosse, Macaire, is no fool, and top NH jockey in France, James Revelely comes over to ride in preference to going to Autueil. Macaire has no further entries at Aintree that I can see.

Beau Gosse ran at Kempton last time when a well beaten third to Redicean. Connections believe the good ground was against him that day.

All in all, I’d much sooner take the chance that Beau Gosse will spring a surprise at big odds than tip one of the shorties and I make him an each way bet.

Beau Gosse EW  18/1 (Betfair Sporstbook)

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2.50

Short and sweet as I think Bristol De Mai  has a good chance of winning this. I explain why in this post, sent on Tuesday to those who subscribe to this blog.

Bristol De Mai  EW at 11/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power and Unibet)

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3.25

Having tipped him for the Stayer’s Hurdle last time, I thought I’d be doing so again with The New One here, but an outsider makes greater appeal. Diakali’s had more than his share of training troubles, eventually leaving the care of Willie Mullins in January in a transfer to Gary Moore.

This will be his first appearance for the yard and his first time on a racecourse for almost a year. But his sole Aintree outing was in this race in 2014 when he failed by just a nose and a head to get to The New One and Rock On Ruby.  He’s reported to be sparkling at home and at the price I’m happy to take an EW chance.

Diakali EW 28/1 (Betfair)

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4.20

It’s always good to watch any race over the Grand National fences, and the amateur riders get their first chance of glory here over 2m 5f. Most of these runners are a fair age. I quite like the youngster Sir Jack Yeats, who’s just 7, but his jumping style suggests to me that he might not take to these fences. I’ll bypass him in favour of Grand Vision, ridden by the superb Jamie Codd.

Grand Vision 9/2 (Unibet)

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4.40

Bentelimar is a hard horse to win with, but he’s been running well over about half a mile farther recently. His last run at Kempton saw him fade rather tamely having travelled well. That was after almost two months off and he should be sharper for it. The drop in trip here should help and first time cheekpieces are tried.

Bentelimar 12/1 (Boylesports)

I’ll be having £1 stakes as appropriate (EW where mentioned) on the above and suggest you do the same. We ought to take advantage of the three places on offer and back Bristol De Mai and Diakali in an EW double to £1 stakes with Betfair Sportsbook.

Enjoy the racing and don’t bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile. I’ll update the profit and loss for TV Tips after racing. Going into today, we are running at a loss of  £31.32 to £1 stakes.

Joe

 

 

 

 

 

Munir/Suoede

 

 

TV Tips Saturday 7th April 2018

As ever, I’ll skip the Flat coverage and concentrate on jumps at Kelso, my favourite course for a day out. I’ll update the profit & loss account on TV tips after racing.

1.50

All four contenders have run on heavy, but the only one with a 100% record – 2 from 2 – is Hills Of Dubai, and in a tight little contest, that’s enough to make him the selection.

Hills of Dubai 7/2

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2.25

Another difficult handicap…much has been lost on Gassin Golf, a horse with talent but one who’s spurned many opportunities to use it; he’s won just once over hurdles, although he’s run in some pretty hot ones. This is a long trek for him from Kerry Lee’s yard, almost 300 miles and I suspect that if he doesn’t win this, Kerry will leave him in the Kelso stables.

Gassin Golf  7/1

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3.00

The highly consistent Lake View Lad gets the vote in this. He’s been running really well, has won 4 times on heavy and should get the trip.

Lake View Lad  8/1

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3.35

Lastbutnotleast reverts to hurdling after more than a year away from that discipline in which he was unbeaten. He’s also unbeaten on heavy ground and is the selection here.

Lastbutnotleast 6/1

I’ll be having £1 win on each with Betfair Sportsbook at the above prices and a £1 EW treble on the last three mentioned, as the first race has just 4 runners.  I advise you to do the same

 

Enjoy the racing and don’t bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile.

Post race update:  Loss on TV Tips to a £1 stake is now £31.32

Joe

TV Tips Saturday 31st March 2018

Post racing update: none of the selections featured in the finish today leaving us £25.32 down on the year for TV Tips

Not much for us jumping fans to get our teeth into now that the shadow of the flat season looms ever larger, but Haydock provides three TV races, so let’s see if we can make a dent in the deficit of £20.32.

2.05

Orbasa’s a frustrating horse who’s hard to win with. The fact that Nicholls is persevering with him after just 1 success in his last 19 runs ought to mean something. He’d been involved mostly in three-mile races this season before dropping back last time at Kempton to 20 furlongs. I thought he travelled that day like a horse well capable of winning the race and he looked to finish with a fair bit left in the tank; he just took too long to get going.

Haydock’s much longer straight should suit him well here and he’s a good price. He looks to race honestly enough but the blinkers suggest he has some quirks. Cobden rides for the first time and quirky horses sometimes respond to a change of jock.

Orbasa 9/1 Hills

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2.40

A bit like Nicholls with Orbasa, Henderson seems set on getting a race out of Percy Street who’s been backed in his last two races. He was poor in both despite the money being down but must have been showing something at home to suggest he was back in the form that saw him finish sixth in the Fred Winter at last year’s festival.

They appear to be pinning their hope on first time blinkers here and I think there will be cash in the market once more for him, and that it’s worth chancing they get it right this time.

Percy Street 15/2 Hills

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3.15

A fair mix here age-wise and I’m going with the youngest, least exposed, and hopefully improving Shanroe In Milan. He was well ridden by Brian Hughes last time, saving ground all the way and running on well at the death despite looking inexperienced in both jumping and racing.  There could be a fair bit more to come from him and trainer Longsdon has plenty faith in 5lb claimer Paul O’Brien who rides.

Shanroe In Milan 9/1 Betfair

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I’m having £1 win on each with the bookies mentioned above and £1EW treble (Hills) and advise you to do the same.

Enjoy the racing and don’t bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile.

Joe