Cheltenham Festival Record of the stock of top 10 NH Sires

On the Cheltenham Festival, I looked at win and place records for the top 10 NH sires (from a googled list produced by Thoroughbred Owner Breeder & Pacemaker). I am assuming the list is up to date. The site I use for stats research, the superb Horseracebase.com, has data going back to 1997.

List is top sire downward. First figure after sire name is win %, second is place %. Where the sire has had fewer than 100 runners at the Cheltenham Festival, I’ve put the total number of runners in brackets:

KING’S THEATRE 9.55/22.29

PRESENTING 7.69/22.56

KAYF TARA 6.31/17.12

FLEMENSFIRTH 5.56/20.37

BENEFICIAL 5.22/16.52

MILAN 7.25/28.99 (69)

OSCAR 8.33/23.61

WESTERNER 9.09/15.91 (44)

MIDNIGHT LEGEND 5.45/25.45 (55)

ROBIN DES CHAMPS 30.23/34.88 (43)

AVERAGE 8.26/22.1

Robin Des Champs looks far and away the best, but his 13 wins were achieved by just 4 horses:

Sir Des Champs (2)
Vautour (3)
Un Temps Pour Tout (2)
Quevega (6)

If nothing else, this is a good example of the wisdom of digging into headline stats and not just rushing off to back what seems the obvious.

Joe

 

Cheltenham 2017 day 2 selections

Yesterday is dead and gone, as the old song goes, so, on to Wednesday.

 

 

 

1.30  Shattered Love  EW

2.10  Acapella Bourgeois

2.50  Tombstone and also an each way on Hawk High who looks big at 33/1

3.30  God’s Own  EW

4.10  Cantlow  NAP

4.50  Diable De Sivola  EW

5.30  Irish Roe  EW

There are three here worth a small stake EW Patent – Hawk High, Diable De Sivola, and Irish Roe are all 33/1

Good luck

 

Cheltenham Festival 2017 – Day 1 Selections

I won’t bore you with the workings

Bet them each way except Melon (Skybet offer cash back on all losers in the 1.30 up to £20 stake which is returned as a free bet)

Don’t put too much on

Enjoy the racing

 

1.30  Melon  3/1   Freely available

2.10  Charbel 12/1  Betvictor/Betfair/Power

2.50  Singlefarmpayment NAP  15/2  Freely available

3.30  Brain Power  7/1  Freely available

4.10  DebDebDeb  150/1  Hills/ Betvictor/Power

4.50  Bells N Banjos  66/1 Betway

5.30  Captain Redbeard  22/1 Power/Betfair/Betway

Charbel fine value at 33s in The Arkle

jockey_club_logoCharbel is superb antepost value at 33/1 for The Arkle chase at the Cheltenham Festival. He’s due to face Altior on Saturday and that one beat him easily in the Supreme, where Charbel finished 5th. But Charbel looks to me a more natural jumper of fences than Altior and I’ve backed him in the Henry VIII on Saturday.

The form of Charbel’s debut win has been strengthened by Top Notch who was 3rd to him at Uttoxeter and has won his next two. Runner-up Le Prezien won a Grade 2 next time out.

I think 33s (William Hill) is way too big. His trainer says the JLT might also come into the picture so I’ve had a saver at 75 on Betfair for that, but he looks a two-miler. I still hold to the belief that Altior’s jumping might let him down and he’ll be rerouted to the Champion Hurdle. If you want a related-contingency bet that is without penalty, you can bet Altior at 33s and Charbel at 25s in a double with Paddy Power.

The usual warning applies: antepost betting is hazardous. Much can happen between now and raceday (though that works both ways), and if your horse doesn’t run, your stake is lost.  Bet for fun and beware of tipsters who promise the earth,

Good luck

Joe