Tipping

This site began as a blog – steeplechasing.wordpress.com. In early November 2017 it was changed to lazybet.com but I’ve retained all the content right back to 2011 when I started blogging for fun. Other than the fun weekly TV tips, I don’t tip that often, only when I see a horse I think is very good value.

I was never in the habit of updating the posts where tips were published so there’s no record of profit and loss. But, from January 2018, I will update each tip after the race and will also publish a table showing profit and loss.

If you care to dig through, I’ve categorised everything back to the beginning of 2016. Under the tipping tab above, click on Tips and you’ll see the list under the category heading.

NB: a note on confidence levels.   Some punters use a points method to illustrate confidence in a selection. I have never done that as I feel it can be misleading. One good tipster’s maximum bet might be 5 points and another’s 3 points. Some recommend half-points. Many punters new to the game find the points system hard to grasp and I’m not surprised.

Outside of my TV Tips, which are intended as fun bets, I tend to use three expressions:

“This is worth a bet”  The best interpretation of this is that I think this is worth betting mostly because of the price. It might not be an obvious potential winner on form, but I think it has enough going for it not to let the value opportunity pass. My stakes would be pretty small.

“I recommend that you bet this”  Best interpretation here is that I fancy this horse a fair bit.  I’d feel this way about a horse maybe just one or twice a month. My stakes would be at about half my maximum.

“I strongly recommend that you bet this” This means I have seen something not only in the horse but in the price on offer which makes this a no-brainer for me. I’d rarely have one of these more than six times a year and sometimes they are antepost bets with all the attendant risk.  I’d have my maximum bet on these but it’s important to understand that this maximum will depend on my circumstances at the time. I’ve adjusted my staking over the years so that losing even five or six maximum bets in a row does not affect my life or my emotions. That’s what you ought to aim for in your staking.

The key if you are following these tips is to know that you must be in it for the long run. No matter what wording I use or how strong a case I make for a horse in a blog post, there are no certainties. “Banker bets” do not exist and beware any tipster who tells you otherwise.

On my weekly TV Tips, I will almost certainly make a loss.  These tips were started just this year, for fun and to provide newcomers to the sport with a – hopefully cheap – afternoon in front of the TV.  The difference between these and other races is that I don’t get to choose; if it’s on TV I need to nominate a selection, often in a race I wouldn’t look at twice as a serious betting proposition.

Other than the TV selections, I’m reasonably confident that if you back my tips for a whole year, you will come out of it without feeling the tips have been useless.  I can’t guarantee you a profit, nobody can. But I can pretty much guarantee you a good run for your money and a fair bit of excitement. That’s my commitment to you.

The commitment I expect from you is that you won’t bet above your means. You will not bet money you can’t afford to lose with a smile. Any form of gambling is risky and horse racing is no different. I’ve seen many ‘certs’ get beat, most at horrendously short prices.  And from my days mixing with owners and trainers when working at Aintree, I can tell you they are, along with jockeys, the worst tipsters I have ever come across bar none.  They survive on hope and optimism and it tends to flood from them in a fashion that can lead some people to lose a lot of money.

Here’s a wee story to finish with. I was at lunch one day with two executives from a fairly big independent bookmaking chain. We went to a Chinese restaurant near their office and the waiter recognised them as ‘bookies’, which they were not, they were in management of a bookmaking chain, a completely different thing.

Anyway, so far as the waiter was concerned, they were bookies so must therefore have ‘inside information’. He kept pestering them for a tip. They must have told him five times they had no tips. All this did was make him suspect they were holding out. Finally, out of frustration, one of them told him to go and get a newspaper. The waiter hurried off and returned with a paper opened at the racing page. The ‘bookie’ grabbed it, pointed at the first horse to catch his eye and said ‘that one!’, just to get the waiter out of our hair.

The waiter put five grand on it. It finished last.

All the best.

Joe