Recommended Bet

Back Identity Thief at 20/1

Identity Thief is surely a daft price at 20/1 in the Ryanair Hurdle (4.20)

Sam Spinner is so short, I think, because everyone assumes that the slow pace was a major excuse for his performance last time at Cheltenham. But it might well be that he simply didn’t hold his form or wasn’t up to the big day atmosphere.

There are question marks over pretty much everything else in the field, while Identity Thief didn’t run a terrible race to finish 4th in the Champion Hurdle. He’s had a quiet season, but should act in the ground. I don’t think the stamina doubts merit the big price by any means and I think he’s solid value and I make him a ‘recommended’ bet (see here) at 20/1.

Enjoy the racing and don’t bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile.

Joe

Categories: Recommended Bet, tips

4 replies »

  1. I don’t think Sam Spinner ran that bad a race in the Stayers’ Hurdle, he is still an improver and I’d be hopeful he’d go very close in this. That said, I do agree his odds are shorter than his chance of winning.

    The system suggests Identity Thief’s [IT] fair odds should be ~ 18/1 so it does not see any real value in IT.

    Old Guard and Lil Rockerfeller make a bit more appeal as the ‘value’ bets but as you suggest these two, like many in the field, also have questions to answer so a race I’ll sit out.

    RTG,Horse,% WC,Fair Odds
    174,SAM SPINNER(GB),34.86,2.88
    172,WHOLESTONE(IRE),17.25,5.8
    171,OLD GUARD(GB),12.7,8
    169,LIL ROCKERFELLER(USA),9.62,10.5
    168,THE WORLDS END(IRE),7.72,13
    166,IDENTITY THIEF(IRE),5.68,18
    165,THOMAS CAMPBELL(GB),5.49,18.5
    163,SERIENSCHOCK(GER),2.51,40
    157,COOLE CODY(IRE),2.1,48
    156,SHELFORD(IRE),2.09,48

    Good luck

    TW

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