2018 Grand National

TV Tips for Saturday April 14th 2018

Post race update: we started today with a deficit on the TV tips of £21.32. Profit on today’s bets was £16.20, so we’ve done not too bad with the price of our TV racing entertainment since January 1st being £5.12. That’s about it for the Jumps season. I’ll be back tipping on the final weekend, what used to be the Whitbread meeting, and will decide after that what to do blogwise. It’s likely I keep the main tips section (recommended bets) going but we will see.

All the best.

Joe

It seems to have passed quickly, but I prefer the three days of the Aintree Festival to the four days at Cheltenham, at least as far as structure is concerned. Anyway, here we are on Grand National day; let’s try to get back in front for 2018 with the blog’s TV tips.

2.25

There are two potential hotpots here vying for short-priced favouritism, but I’d much sooner have an each way bet on Western Ryder as well as a win saver on the Skelton mare Momella. Dan Skelton had planned to keep Momella for Fairyhouse next week. He’s also on record as not wanting to risk her in really soft ground. I can only assume that with Fairyhouse likely to be heavy, he has chosen to take his chance here since she’ll get the 7lbs mare’s allowance from the others, and I’d expect to see money in the market for her. The other one, Western Ryder has been running really well this season and last time in the Supreme finished as though this trip and track – especially with the long straight – would suit well. He beat Friday’s winner Lalor earlier this season and I think he will go very close in this.

Western Ryder EW 8/1 and Momella to win 11/1

………………………………………..

3.00

At first glance it seems folly to take on Petit Mouchoir, a very classy hurdler and a horse I fancied to beat Footpad at the Festival. Petit Mouchoir pretty much lost all chance at Cheltenham by taking on St Calvados in a pounding battle of front running, and Davy Russell will be keen to avoid another nose to nose for the lead here with Shantou Rock. At the prices it’s worth taking a chance with the unexposed mare Lady Buttons. Her trainer Philip Kirby seems determined to win a good handicap hurdle with her, but her racing demeanour suggests to me that she is an awful lot happier pinging fences then hurdles. She could surprise Petit Mouchoir.

Lady Buttons  7/1

………………………..

3.40

A fascinating race where a number of horses catch the eye. I’ll go fo ran EW bet on Hammersly Lake who looks to me twice the price he should be. The reason for this is probably that it’s the farthest he’s run over and the softest ground he’s experienced for a long time. But I think this horse improved for a change of scenery. He moved from Nicky Henderson to Charlie Longsdon almost a year ago and, in his next three outings, bettered all previous Racing Post Ratings. He then went to the USA for a £200,000 steeplechase where he was beaten under 5 lengths.  This is his first run since and I think he could surprise a few.

Hammersly Lake EW 40/1

…………………………………………

4.20

Sam Spinner is a short price based on his early season form and on the assumption that his jockey didn’t press on with him at Cheltenham and make it a full stamina test. Young Colliver will be under pressure to make amends here and is likely to be taken on up front – for a while at least – by Coole Cody. All in all, things might not be straightforward. I like Old Guard but I suspect the ground, trip and pace will combine to see him fail. The one who appeals strongly value-wise is Identity Thief. He’s such a long price because this is the farthest he’s tried by quite some way. He’s usually campaigned at 2 miles at pretty much top level (he was 4th in the Champion Hurdle last time) so this is a big trip increase. But he’ll handle the ground and is a classy animal who should have a fine chance of making the first three.

Identity Thief  EW 22/1

………………………………………….

5.15

This is the big one and I can do nothing more than relist the three selections posted as recommended tips already.

Milansbar  33/1

Virgilio  80/1

Final Nudge  50/1

 

NB The prices I list above are taken from Oddschecker. Depending on when you read the blog and place your bet, those prices might have changed. You can check current prices here

 

Enjoy the racing and don’t bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile.

Joe

 

 

 

 

3 replies »

  1. I can see Milansbar [33/1] running a big race if it takes to the National course and I’m keen on Houblon Des Obeaux [40/1] (10th last year, 5lbs lower this time, in good form, ground more suitable).

    RTG,Horse,% WC,Fair Odds
    177,ANIBALE FLY(FR),7.48,13.5
    175,GAS LINE BOY(IRE),5.04,20
    173,HOUBLON DES OBEAUX(FR),4.83,21
    173, MILANSBAR(IRE),4.72,22
    171,BLAKLION(GB),3.76,27
    177,VIRGILIO(FR),3.6,28
    173,DELUSIONOFGRANDEUR(IRE),3.42,30
    173,PERFECT CANDIDATE(IRE),3.29,32
    172,VIEUX LION ROUGE(FR),3.28,32
    176,ROAD TO RICHES(IRE),3.22,32
    174,UCELLO CONTI(FR),3.08,34
    172,PENDRA(IRE),3.07,34
    175,SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT(GB),3.05,34
    175,SHANTOU FLYER(IRE),3.05,34
    172,RAZ DE MAREE(FR),3.01,34
    173,FINAL NUDGE(IRE),2.82,36
    170,THE LAST SAMURI(IRE),2.79,36
    171,BUYWISE(IRE),2.74,38
    172,BAIE DES ILES(FR),2.64,38
    173,WARRIORS TALE(GB),2.49,42
    170,TENOR NIVERNAIS(FR),2.46,42
    172,BLESS THE WINGS(IRE),2.36,44
    174,CARLINGFORD LOUGH(IRE),2.29,44
    172,DOUBLE ROSS(IRE),2.29,44
    171,CAPTAIN REDBEARD(IRE),2.13,48
    173,ALPHA DES OBEAUX(FR),1.95,55
    172,SAINT ARE(FR),1.9,55
    169,TOTAL RECALL(IRE),1.47,70
    170,CHILDRENS LIST(IRE),1.4,75
    168,CHASE THE SPUD(GB),1.3,80

    I also like Momella and whilst she may not be able to reverse the placings with On The Blind Side from when they last met but it’s not impossible that she might. 12/1 EW looks a good bet.

    RTG,Horse,% WC,Fair Odds
    171,ON THE BLIND SIDE(IRE),36.31,2.76
    167,BLACK OP(IRE),15,6.8
    166,MOMELLA(IRE),14.18,7.2
    161,WESTERN RYDER(IRE),5.3,19
    161,LOSTINTRANSLATION(IRE),4.62,22

    Good luck.

    TW

      • Virgilio does rate well on my system and is certainly much better than an 80/1 shot. However, the system also raised flags about his ability to stay the trip on this ground so set it to a ‘no bet’ horse.

        Good luck.

        TW

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