Post racing update: enjoyable day’s racing in which we saw at least one future star in Redicean; possibly two given the way Global Citizen won.
£7 on 5 races today: 2 winners at 4/7 and 10/11 gives a return of £3.48 adding £3.52 to the deficit which is now £14.02
Two of today’s TV races are at Lingfield’s all weather track. I have no interest in all weather racing so will not be tipping anything there.
But there’s some good pre festival racing at Kempton and Newcastle so let’s see if we can make further inroads into the £10.51 deficit.
As usual, I will update the figures after racing.
If you are new to the blog, best read this page before having a bet
I’ve been impressed by Cyrname this season and won’t oppose the odds on chance in a race where his trainer has sent out seven of the last ten winners.
Redicean has accelerated in the style of a class horse on his last two runs and I won’t oppose him despite short-priced favourites being beaten here in the last two runnings (Charlie Parcs and Gibralfaro).
If there’s to be a shock I suspect it will come in the shape of the filly Harmonise who’s in receipt of 10lbs from the fav. She ran a fine race at Ascot at 50/1 on her debut, still in with a chance when brought down at the last. Still very green, she then won at Plumpton. At her price I am tempted, but Redicean looks a top prospect who could go very close in the Triumph Hurdle next month.
Since 2007, Nicky Henderson has won this race 4 times and Alan King has won 3. King has two in the race, the more fancied being the ex-flat horse Scarlet Dragon. On flat ratings, there’s not that much between Scarlet Dragon, Carntop and Henderson’s Humphrey Bogart. Scarlet Dragon holds a Supreme entry whereas Humphrey Bogart has not been entered at the festival. That fact makes it difficult to work out if the non-entry is a positive or a negative. Are they thinking he is a horse for the long term who doesn’t want a tough festival race at this stage?
He was 5th in the 2016 Derby and has run only twice in Britain since. At the price, I think it’s worth taking a chance with him.
Humphrey Bogart 9/1
I’ve always liked Theatre Guide and he’s been kept unusually fresh this season, reportedly with this race in mind. He was third in it last year and won it in 2016. He has his ground and track and despite the big weight he will run his usual honest race and could well win it.
I’ve tipped As De Mee for the National. His trainer put us away last weekend saying Black Corton would improve a lot for what was supposedly a Cheltenham prep race. He’s saying the same about As De Mee here in that it’s his Grand National prep, but that race is still almost 7 weeks off, so I’ll have £1 on him too.
Theatre Guide 16/1
As De Mee 18/1
If you have any lengthy tasks today, make a start on them when this race goes off; you’ll be done in time to see the finish of this extended 4 miler on heavy ground. Sometimes I think the finishes of such races do more damage to racing’s image than any whip use. But ours is not to reason why.
It’s a race that’s been won a number of times by small yards and I’m recommending two outsiders rather than have an each way bet on one. My main fancy is Silver Tassie trained by Micky Hammond whose yard is in fine form with a 26% win rate and 47% place rate. Silver Tassie’s been around a long time, but older horses have a decent record in this with two 11-y-olds and two 10-y-olds winning in the past ten years.
He’s a game type if a bit slow and in his only two runs well beyond three miles he’s been pulled up. But he looks to me like a stayer and he’s fine on this ground. He’s broken blood vessels, and there’s an obvious risk there. But he seems to be coming to form having run well last time here behind Smooth Stepper, the first time that today’s jockey Alain Cawley rode him.
On past form, he’s the same horse at these weights as Baywing. They’ve met twice and Silver Tassie has come out on top in both. He’s four times the price of Baywing in this and he will do for the main selection.
The one I like for a saver is Themanfrom Minella, another who has stamina to prove but he’s ground it out like a dyed in the wool stayer in his last two wins. Blinkers appear to have made quite a difference to him and he is also from a smallish yard.
Silver Tassie 33/1
Themanfrom Minella 16/1
Enjoy the racing and don’t bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile.