Cheltenham Festival 2018

Cash in on Waiting Patiently

The 7-y-o bay gelding Waiting Patiently is unbeaten in more than two years. He was 2nd in his first two runs and has won all six since. Five of those were over fences, and he has the classic profile of an improving horse heading for the top.

His first official rating was 120 (January 2016). Here’s how he has progressed in the eyes of the BHA handicapper.

120

123

136

142

150

156

164

Screenshot of Numbers (14-02-2018, 18-19-43)

His Kempton victory last time accounted for his 8lbs rise, but there is every chance that underestimates the progress he’s making. He conceded 4lbs to the 2nd and 3rd – Art Mauresque and God’s Own – beating them 8 lengths and 12 lengths. It wasn’t so much what he beat as how he beat them, travelling well and taking it up just after two out then powering clear in the style of the top notch, fast-improving horse that he is.

His connections had believed until that point that soft ground was important for Waiting Patiently, but that Kempton win, like his Carlisle victory, was on good to soft. He’s due to run at Ascot on Saturday where the going is currently soft. You can get 11/4 for that and I strongly recommend backing him, though wait for the final declarations tomorrow in case he steps on a stone; the price should not change that much.

I also recommend, even more strongly that you bet Waiting Patiently now for the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Connections say they will decide after Saturday whether he goes there, but you can get 7/1 non-runner-no-bet with online bookie Betway.

Good luck, and remember the Lazybet motto: don’t bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile.

Joe

7 replies »

  1. Betfair Ascot Chase

    It’s a fascinating race on Saturday and Waiting Patiently[I rate him at 173 v BHA 164] is my system’ idea of the most likely winner but at current odds of around 9/4 there’s not much juice in his price.

    The system is flagging Frodon as the potential value in the race at odds of 11/1. Perhaps his impressive win in a handicap at Cheltenham last time out should not be taken at face value, Bryony Frost cannot claim her 5lb tomorrow and he was beaten 10l by Top Notch late last year. But he’s still only a 6-y-o, this looks his optimum distance, he could genuinely still be improving and at double figure odds I’ll probably take a chance.

    RTG,Horse,% WC
    187,WAITING PATIENTLY(IRE),42.34
    186,FRODON(FR),15.93
    181,TOP NOTCH(FR),14.29
    180,CONEY ISLAND(IRE),14.22
    180,CUE CARD(GB),6.94
    174,SPEREDEK(FR),3.92
    168,TRAFFIC FLUIDE(FR),2.37

    Good luck

    TW

  2. Hi Tony,

    I have suspicions about that Frodon form. For more than a year he’s stayed within 2 or 3 pounds of that 150ish mark. Had that win come on a seasonal debut it would give me more food for thought, but he’d been busy enough this season. I’ve always thought Top Notch a touch over-rated, and I’m very hopeful Waiting Patiently can win this comfortably.

    Good luck.
    Joe

    • I have suspicions about that Frodon form.

      You’re probably right but on the other hand the race he won at Cheltenham had a good speed rating and there were any number of decent yardsticks behind him suggesting that the form just might hold up. His previous defeats this term don’t look that shabby when you look at the subsequent performances of those that finished in front of him which might mean the 150ish mark underplays his ability.

      I don’t doubt Waiting Patiently is the most likely winner but on reflection I still think the value lay in the 12/1 about Frodon and I’ve invested accordingly.

      As ever we’ll know more post-race.

      Best of luck.

      TW

    • Thanks, Peter. Fabulous from Cue Card but for Waiting Patiently to move so smoothly through the field from a long way back and come to Cue Card’s girth cruising tells you all you need to know. This is a top class animal who has been brought along so quietly and cleverly that he still has quite a bit to learn. Gold Cup horse in time.

      Joe

  3. You are very knowledgable and having followed your recommendations over the years, you have held your own if not better than so called information I have paid a lot of money for.

    Credit when credit is due
    Again thanks and well done.
    P.S Some great calls all round today

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