Deficit to a £1 stake for 2018 on the TV Tips is £10.32 at the start of racing. I will update this evening.
Post-racing update: one non-runner, one faller, three unplaced, two winners (one, in reality as Buveur D’Air was effectively a walkover). Terrefort was returned at 15/8 so we have a loss for the day of £2.05 bringing the running deficit to £12.37
Mike made a fair point in the comments section of last week’s TV tips, given that I have been tipping on twitter for so long. If you haven’t seen that comment, it’s worth me repeating here that, before I set up the weekly TV tips, I used to offer the occasional tip on twitter and with some success.
The big difference between then and now is that I only tipped when I really fancied something, whereas, TV races dictate themselves and I have no control over whether I fancy something strongly or not in each race. I study the race and make my selection anyway to offer small stakes interest to anyone who wants to take advantage. I do bet all my selections, but for small stakes.
It’s worth reading this post on the tipping page to give you a better idea of confidence levels when I tip anything.
The only danger to Buveur D’Air will be catching a hurdle a few inches below the top. His major asset is pinpoint hurdling accuracy. The only downside of that skill is that one single error can be costly, but I wouldn’t oppose him and look forward to seeing this fine horse win again.
Buveur D’Air 1/12
Despite the small field, this is a hot race. I like Cyrname and tipped him last time but am not willing to chance him seeing out this longer trip, especially with the uphill finish, given that Terrefort and Kalondra are proven stayers at this distance.
There was an awful lot to like about Kalondra last time with Fehily taking many pulls and still holding hard as they turned in. He won very readily and should go well here but given the authority Terrefort showed on his British debut victory at Huntingdon, I’ll go with him.
Another fiendish Saturday puzzle of a handicap hurdle. The one who’s most overpriced here in my book is Theligny, a grey horse who won four times last season before a setback at Haydock. Nine months after being pulled up there, he ran respectably at Aintree before being caught close home at Newbury.
He will probably try to lead all the way here and is a difficult horse to pass.
Shanroe Santos looks the value here. He’s run really well last twice and despite making several mistakes last time and unseating here recently, he’s basically, technically at least, a decent jumper, and I’m happy to take the chance he’ll keep it together to repeat his victory here from March. He’s a better horse going this way round I think.
Shanroe Santos 12/1
Pearl Royale won by 11 lengths last time, her chasing debut. In the race before that she won by 50 lengths. She’s an improving mare and is worth the chance to show she’s up to this class.
Pearl Royale 5/1
Brony Frost is to be feared on almost anything she rides at the moment, such is her confidence, and Sir Chauvelin was impressive here last time. But the Nicholls horse would probably want better ground and Sir Chauvelin is far from fluent at times in his hurdling.
It’s worth taking a chance with the very experienced Crackdeloust who, having gone well in a gallops trial with blinkers, wore them for the first time in his last race where he won comfortably. He’s up in class and down in trip but I’m happy to make him the selection.
I’m going with Bryony here. This is her first ride on Southfield Theatre who’s a tricky character. Miss Frost might just find the key to him. She’s excelled on staying chasers and has the knack of getting horses into a rhythm – such an important asset in marathon chases.
Southfield Theatre 15/2
Enjoy the racing and don’t bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile.