Lazybet

Back Guitar Pete at 6/1

Post race update:  Guitar Pete went off at 7/2 but unseated at the 10th while still travelling sweetly.  I’ve seen some criticism of his jumping, and he is no Altior, but it’s sound enough and he can recoup losses next time when, hopefully, the ground is better.

Working to £1 stakes, we are £1 down on “recommended” bets for 2018

The improving Guitar Pete is due to run at Ascot on Saturday in the Bet365 Handicap Chase (3pm).

He was fortunate last time at Cheltenham, well adrift of Starchitect when that clear leader sadly broke down fatally. But Guitar Pete has found his feet after joining Nicky Richards last spring from Sandra Hughes and is beginning to build a progressive profile.

I’d fear Robinshill more than Acting Lass, though Robinshill can take big chances with his jumping at times and has a tendency to jump left.

I think Guitar Pete could be as short as 4/1 on Saturday. Normally, at this stage of the week I’d wait and see but his trainer has said he goes here (that can never be relied 100%, but Richards is usually straightforward) and I’d sooner take a small risk to get the 6/1. Although the horse has not won in Britain going right-handed, he has won twice that way in Ireland. This will be his first appearance at Ascot.

I recommend a win bet at 6/1 which is currently available with Coral and Betvictor.

Good luck

Joe

Categories: Lazybet, tips, Value bets

3 replies »

  1. With the final declarations in I’ve ran this race through my system. It suggests Acting Lass as the most likely winner, but he’s priced accordingly so does not look to offer any real value. The potential value bet would be Forest des Aigles (11/1) but he looks more likely to run in the Peter Marsh should Haydock survive its 08:00 inspection.

    I’m not quite convinced that Guitar Pete is as progressive as you feel and Robinshill has disappointed each time he has been stepped up in trip.

    2m5f bet365 Handicap Chase (Class 2) (5yo+)

    RTG,Horse,% WC,Fair Decimal Odds
    178,ACTING LASS(IRE),28.57,3.50
    173,FOREST DES AIGLES(FR),20.93,4.78
    174,SHANTOU FLYER(IRE),10.86,9.21
    171,GUITAR PETE(IRE),8.69,11.51
    173,MINELLA DADDY(IRE),8.5,11.76
    173,TENOR NIVERNAIS(FR),7.95,12.58
    169,FORTUNATE GEORGE(IRE),7.07,14.14
    172,KILCREA VALE(IRE),5.1,19.61
    167,ROBINSHILL(IRE),2.34,42.74

    At this stage a race I’ll sit out, best of luck with the selection.

    TW

  2. Thanks, Tony. I’m undecided about Acting Lass. Either he’s not straightforward or he’s green. He travels well then seems to find little and it just looks something a bit deeper than idling to my eye. I suspect he’ll be held up longer tomorrow although they’ll then have the worry of him picking up in time. I wouldn’t rule out a physical issue that manifests under pressure. We shall see. Good luck.
    Joe

    • With the field down to 6 runners your decision to step in earlier in the week has paid off. This is certainly Acting Lass’ biggest test thus far so we will lean a bit more today.

      RTG,Horse,% WC,Fair Decimal Odds
      178,ACTING LASS(IRE),47.27,2.12
      171,GUITAR PETE(IRE),15.74,6.35
      173,MINELLA DADDY(IRE),15.04,6.65
      169,FORTUNATE GEORGE(IRE),10.22,9.78
      172,KILCREA VALE(IRE),8.23,12.15
      167,ROBINSHILL(IRE),3.51,28.49

      Good luck

      TW

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