tips

TV Tips for Saturday 6th January

Post-racing edit for P&L:

£13 staked today (based on £1 single bets and the recommended EW double).

Two winners: Speredek at 5/2 and Summerville Boy at 16/1 (after Rule 4 this £17 return was reduced to £15.40).

That gives a profit today of £5.90 and a running loss in 2018 of £1.10p.

 

We come into today £7 down on 2018 bets. Nine races to get through, so let’s crack on . . .

Chepstow

1.35

Some smart juveniles here and a couple are doubly engaged. I’ll go with one who impressed me at Sandown last time – Sussex Ranger. What surprised me about that run was how well he kept on, having made all. He looked like he’d fold at one point and then found more.  He’s also engaged in the 2.25 Sandown and he’ll be my selection there too as I’d back him wherever he runs tomorrow.

Sussex Ranger  3/1

 

2.05

This is the Welsh National, postponed from Christmas time. Back then I tipped Silsol for it. He was available for a few pounds at 69/1 on Betfair. That won’t be repeated although you can get 33/1 with many bookmakers at the time of writing.

Silsol caught my eye one day at Carlisle when beating Maximiser and Seeyouatmidnight; he looked just the type to pick up a decent long distance handicap in heavy ground and that’s what he gets tomorrow. He was off more than a year after beating Native River over hurdles but returned a month ago at Haydock over hurdles and ran a typical prep-type race being prominent for a long time behind all the way winner Sam Spinner.

Silsol’s chasing experience is limited but the upside of that is he is rated 8lbs lower over fences than over hurdles. And the talented Bryony Frost takes off 5lbs. On breeding, he’s the only offspring of his sire and dam to try this trip and he is the one in the family who has won over farthest – 3m2f. You can never say something will stay until it stays but there is no evidence that Silsol will not stay and at the price I’m more than willing to take the chance.

I’m going to have a saver too on Buckthorn Timothy who has been hurdling to protect his handicap mark over fences.  He’ll like the ground and could go well.  You ca get 25/1 with most bookies.

Silsol  33/1

Buckthorn Timothy  25/1

 

Sandown

1.50

Speredek is the youngest in this race by quite some way and has been improving over hurdles. He ended lasts eason with three chasing wins, one at Sandown, and he should go well on this his first outing over fences this season.

Speredek  5/2

 

2.25

Sussex Ranger is also engaged in the 1.35 at Chepstow which is reportedly his preference. If he does turn up here he’d be my selection. In his absence I’d happily have a small bet on the outsider Summerville Boy who has run quite well in defeat and might just want this heavy ground to blunt the pace of the others.

Sussex Ranger 7/1

if absent, Summerville Boy 16/1 (Rule 4 if Sussex Ranger doesn’t run)

 

3.00

A veteran’s race worth £100,000 – you can count on one cert, there’ll have been more than one of these laid out specially for this. My main selection probably does not fit that bill but he has a habit of running very well after being pulled up (as he was last time). No Duffer is the name and I hope he lives up to it.

I’ll have a saver on Double Ross who’ll be much more comfortable at this pace than he was in the old Hennessy last time.

No Duffer  25/1

Double Ross  11/1

NB – I think there’s a fair chance that No Duffer will at least place and the same goes for Silsol in the 2.05 Chepstow. I’ll be having a small EW double and advise that you do the same – 25/1 and 33/1.

 

3.35

Clayton has won at the track and on the ground. He hurdles well and was probably idling last time before picking up again to win in a photo. He was off all last season and could well be progressing now. He’ll do for me.

Clayton 13/2

 

Wincanton

2.40

Half of this six-runner field is doubly engaged. One who is not is Antartica De Thaix, an improving mare who has won on this ground.

Antartica De Thaix  7/4

 

3.15

Silverhow has decent hurdle form and has clocked fair Topspeed figures too in that discipline. He fell at the first on his chasing debut but is well worth another chance here.

Silverhow  4/1

 

3.45

14 of Edvardo’s 15 runs have been in Ireland. He moved to Richard Woollacott in November and ran right up to his best Racing Post Rating figure on his first outing for the yard. He was second that day but the first and third have won since and Edvardo can take this.

Edvardo  7/2

 

Enjoy the racing and don’t bet more than you can afford to lose with a smile.

Joe

 

 

Categories: tips, TV races

4 replies »

  1. None of my business, and it is great that you are taking the time to do the TV write-ups, but I think you might be being a bit hard on yourself maintaining a full P/L for all the TV tips. It’s akin to a newspaper tipster having to ‘put one up’ just for the sake of it.

    One way around it might be to do the write-ups as normal, including your race fancy, but at the end of the piece highlight any you think worthy of a bet including the points staked and do the P/L on those selections. As I say none of my business!

    I like the case you make for Silsol, he’d certainly be on a very lenient mark if running to the best of his hurdling form, but my worry is that they switched him back to hurdles early on in his chasing career because his jumping was not up to scratch so he’ll need to have improved in that department. I’ve taken an EW chance with the old boy Alfie Spinner, (25/1 6 places) he’s looked revitalised with the Lee’s and has an effective 12lb pull with Wild West Wind when finishing under 2L 2nd in the trial race.

    Good luck

    TW

    • Well done with Alfie. Like Shotgun Paddy, he’s another I abandoned a long time ago but when I saw him travelling so sweetly on the first circuit I began wondering if I’d blundered. He ran a fine race and hopefully gave you a decent profit.

      On the TV bets, I didn’t put that much thought into the record-keeping at the start and was reasonably confident I could provide, at worst, some pretty cheap entertainment. The key for me is stressing the fun side of TV bets and I always back my own selections to small stakes. I’ll keep the P&L going through this year; it’ll be an interesting experiment on return on investment, timewise if nothing else. I normally spend between 20 minutes and 30 minutes per race when analysing.

      On the old blog I had a stakes guide in that if I said I “recommend” betting a horse then that could be taken as inferring I was reasonably confident that following “recommended’ in the long term would bring a profit. When I say “strongly recommend” then I am very confident that backing such animals in the long term will bring a profit. I will review this now and publish a new guide so that any recommendations I make can be interpreted by the reader with, at least, a bit more insight to my thinking.

      All the best. I’m grateful you take the time to comment each week.
      Joe

      • A good day at the office yesterday, well done.

        Alfie Spinner ran a grand race as did Silsol who, with most layers paying 5 places, also gave a nice return for anyone you played that way.

        I see Shotgun Paddy is running in the Sussex National, down another 4lbs to his lowest ever mark of 128 and tried in a first-time visor. I’ll take a watching brief!

        TW

      • Thanks, Tony.

        Although it’s 4 years now since Paddy last won, if Buywise can do it, there’s hope for him yet. Maybe an Aspell booking would help.

        I noticed when he ran at Newbury that the young horse, Mulcahys Hill is by the same sire, Brian Boru. And Mulcahys flashed his tail a couple of times, caring little for the whip although he seemed to battle on well enough. Fascinating animals . . .

        Joe

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

w

Connecting to %s