tips

Sir Ivan well worth a bet at 15/2

Black Corton is on a roll here and trying for a six-timer. He’s a bonny type but he’s pretty short for a horse who has yet to put up a decent speed figure, especially as he’s been in fine form and has had plenty chances to do so.

I think Sir Ivan is good value to beat the favourite. He has clocked speed figures twice now that are a fair bit in advance of what Black Corton has managed, this despite only recently beginning to get it together over fences. He’s improving and I like his attitude an awful lot. There’s an admirable tenacity about him. He could do with sharpening his jumping, but I’m happy at the price to back him. This is his toughest test by far but his trainer is no fool and I doubt he’d be here if he wasn’t up to it.

For online punters Stan James are a full point better than anyone else in offering 15/2.

Good luck

Joe

Categories: tips, Today's Racing

2 replies »

  1. Speed figures can vary quite significantly across differing compilers. For instance, the Racing Post TS has:

    Sir Ivan 137 [125]
    Black Corton 113 [104]

    So that certainly backs up your thoughts.

    However, Lawrence Taylor of At The Races has:

    Black Corton 120
    Sir Ivan 118

    And my personal speed ratings are:
    Sir Ivan 142
    Black Corton 136

    A further complication is that when a horse is winning without extending itself there is no urgent need to post a good time on the clock!

    I’d chalked up Black Corton as an even money shot and whilst 2/1 is shorter than I’d like in a novice chase event I’ve taken an interest at those odds.

    Good luck

    TW

    • I posted this 15 minutes ago on TRF in response to a post from the speed expert on there who is very experienced and very good. He said his going allowance made yesterday’s Newbury ground on the fast side of good. I don’t keep my own figures, one of the reasons being the sometimes gaping differences of opinion among specialists in this niche.

      “I’m growing increasingly confused by the differences in speed ratings. Timeform’s retrospective going for hurdle and chase track yesterday was good to soft and I know they base much of that on time.

      I tipped Sir Ivan on my blog in the upcoming race at Newbury. One of the reasons being that he’d achieved notably higher Topspeed ratings than the fav. Then a twitter time man (who does work for Betfair) told me that in his last race Black Corton put up one of the best times for a novice he had ever clocked.

      ATR’s time expert often differs with the others…I just don’t know what to make of what, for me, is an important element of punting. Mike has been doing this successfully for an awful long time and I’d never ignore his views. I just wish more light could be cast on this whole area.”

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