General

Be wise with Buywise at 50/1 in the National

national_jumpersThe Crabbie’s Grand National entries were published today, and Buywise caught my eye. He’s trained by Evan Williams who has a good record of placed horses in the National, and for the romantic among you, Williams has sworn ‘I’ll win the Grand National before I draw my last breath’.

Buywise could be the one. He’s certainly worth betting at 50/1, which is twice the price he should be in my opinion. He’s a talented but, so far, luckless horse who has run well in some really good handicaps. He tends to run into trouble at a crucial point, take a bump or run into the back of something, or just make a bog-standard jumping error. But that seems to be steadily getting ironed out. He was 3rd at Doncaster last Saturday and made no mistakes. He was staying on well at the end and his trainer now believes he might have been running the horse over the wrong trip.

Buywise, like many before him, will be wide-eyed when he sees the Aintree fences for the first time, though they are nowhere near as punishing as they used to be, thankfully. Some horses get scared and can’t or won’t jump them cleanly. Some find it exhilarating and fly round. I’m hoping Buywise is in the latter category.

I’m certain he’ll be much shorter than 50/1 come April 9th, but, as always, much can happen between now and then. If he doesn’t make it to the race (a pre-race injury would rule any potential runner out), your money is lost, so stake accordingly.

Good luck

Joe

 

 

Categories: General, tips

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2 replies »

  1. Alan Potts once said, at a Cheltenham preview, that it is pointless backing hold up horses in the national as this is the one race that they are likely to be even further behind with even more ground to make up.
    Have to go along with that even though I did quite fancy Buywise myself until I remembered what Mr Potts had said.
    Think any Clouds has every chance again and if it runs First Lieutenant.
    My main fancy though, even given his years, is Vics Canvas.
    Been waiting 3 yrs for the horse to run in the National and I think has an outstanding chance at good odds.

  2. Providing he stands up the long run in from the elbow to the lollipop should give Buywise ample time to come from behind and get the job done. The caveat being his hind leg which is stuffed with a metal plate cause his sometimes dodgy jumping. Whist Buywise has been running over much shorter his pedigree by Breeders Cup Turf winner Tikkanen suggests he’ll improve markedly for the trip. Many of Tikkanen’s progeny have stayed marathon trips well most notably Golden Chieftain 7 lengths clear when falling at the 3rd last in this year’s Midlands GN (33f) when seemingly having every chance to collect.

    However the forgotten horse could be Ballycasey (stopped dead in his tracks last year by the fall of Balthazar King when just getting going). ‘Riff-Raf’s lovely grey arguably has the best staying pedigree in the field and has long since been the apple of his trainer’s son Patrick who has thought Ballycasey tailor made for the job since they got him. Two recent Grand National winners have been produced by his dam sire’ Montelimar’ (by dual Arc winner Alleged) in Hedgehunter and Monty’s Pass plus his sire ‘Presenting’ is responsible for also producing 2011 Grand National winner Ballabriggs, 2015 Irish GN winner Thunder and Roses and a whole host of top class 3m+ stayers including two Gold Cup winners War of Attrition and the mighty Denman.

    Currently trading at 80/1 on Betfair Katie Wash’s mount seems overpriced to produce a winning performance for stepping up in trip (Beat Don Cossack as a novice). Of the others O’Faolains Boy is after Many Clouds the best jumper at pace in the field and looks to be coming back to his best given his latest performance in the Gold Cup when jumping for fun for most of the way at speed with the leading pack before fitness found him out in the closing stages. Added to the that his trainer Rebecca Curtis is also returning to form having recently followed an across the card double at Bangor and Ffos Las on 31st March with a double at Newbury the next day (no April fools those two). Final (traditional) place can go to Sir de Champs now ridden by the master of these types of fences and races: Ms. Nina Carberry and whose reportedly be working well over the last 10 days. It could be a memorable day for all the girls this year.

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