Big races

Left it late but bet of the year at 25/1 to pay for Christmas

cash_in_handI fancy Cue Card very strongly to win the King George VI Steeplechase at Kempton on Wednesday.  If he does so, he will almost certainly shorten dramatically for the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March. If he wins convincingly, he might even end up favourite for that race.

If he loses on Wednesday, it’s highly likely lack of stamina will be blamed (assuming he completes the course), in which case he will not run in the Gold Cup.

Betvictor offer 25/1 against Cue Card winning the Gold Cup. If he is a non-runner, your stake will be refunded as a free bet (which must be used on Gold Cup day in March: read the full terms and conditions ). In ‘normal’ ante-post bets, your stake is lost if the horse does not run in the specified race.

If Cue Card shortens in the Gold Cup betting, you will, if you wish, be able to ‘sell’ all or some of your bet on Betfair (if he wins I will post a Betfair video tutorial showing you how to do this). Selling (laying  off) ensures you cannot lose from the deal. If he loses at Kempton and for some reason still runs in the Gold Cup without shortening in the betting then you will not be able to lay the bet off profitably (I cannot foresee circumstances in which this would happen).

If you take advantage of this offer, you might also want to have a bet on Oscar Whisky at 6/1 for The World Hurdle. Betvictor’s free bet also applies here and if Oscar Whisky runs (he has a choice of races at the festival) he is likely to be around 2/1 or shorter, thus providing another selling opportunity.

I need to state the usual caveats that this is not investment advice. I have no direct link to the connections of Cue Card and my judgement of where he will run, and how his connections will interpret the result of Wednesday’s race is based  on my own experience, so it is not without risk. If he does not turn up in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, you will, of course need to find another selection to carry your refunded stake, but that is a much healthier position to be in than losing it without a run.

Good luck and happy Christmas

WarnedOff

3 replies »

  1. Cracking ‘advice’ as ever Joe,

    I’ve always taken my ‘Cue’ from you and will continue to do so long after you have celebrated Hogmanay next week, win, lose or draw Sir!

    Have a great Christmas and keep up this marvellous work for the benefit of all readers and your many loyal ‘subjects’!

  2. Logic pts 2 Long Run hon. But Punjabi in the hurdle is a v interesting ew proposition! Did that hill in claggy n think he has soft form Chepstow? Not there 4 nothing! Merry crimble roll on tomorrow! X 

    Sent from Samsung Galaxy on O2

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