John Smith’s Grand National:nine-year-olds have won more than a quarter of all Nationals: full stats here

NINE IS THE NUMBER

In the John Smith’s Grand National at Aintree, nine-year-olds have outstandingly the best record with 45 of that age-group having prevailed in the 163 previous runnings at Aintree.

In the past 20 races, nine-year-olds and 10-year-olds have won six times apiece. During that same timescale, four 11-year-olds have won, two eight-year-olds and two 12-year-olds.

In terms of winners-to-runners, an analysis of the past 20 runnings shows that nine-year-olds and 10-year-olds have not only the best record, but have performed better than their proportional representation.

There have been 761 runners in the past 20 Grand Nationals (1990-2010), broken down as follows:

Age Runners %runners Winners %winners Places(1-4) %Places

14 3    0.4  0    0    0    0

13 25    3.3  0    0    0    0

12 69    9  2  10    4    5

11 147  19.3  4  20  16  20

10 184  24.2  6  30  17  21.3

9 193  25.4  6  30  27  33.7

8 100  13.1  2    0  16  20

7 31    4.1  0    0    0    0

6 9    1.2  0    0    0    0

It can be seen that both nine-year-olds and 10-year-olds have a better win record than their representation would suggest; 11-year-olds and 12-year-olds about the same; and eight-year-olds and other age groups worse.

Nine-year-olds have had not only the best numerical representation in the frame (1st-4th) but also easily the best  proportional representation.

AGE STATISTICS SINCE 1839

13-year-olds: 2 (most recent Sergeant Murphy 1923)

12-year-olds: 10 (most recent Amberleigh House 2004)

11-year-olds: 16 (most recent Red Marauder 2001)

10-year-olds: 21 (most recent Don’t Push It 2010)

Nine-year-olds: 45 (most recent Mon Mome 2009)

Eight-year-olds: 21 (most recent Bindaree 2002)

Seven-year-olds: 22 (most recent Bogskar 1940)

No horse younger than seven or older than 13 running this year

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