The Eider – ‘alternative’ stats – 7 winners from past 12 -ROI 246.5%

Results update:  Belon Gale pulled up:  Giles Cross finished an exhausted second at 9/2

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I’m wary of many stats and trends because few give you a base to compare with.  You will read, for example, that Long Run cannot win the Gold Cup because 6-year-olds have a terrible record in it and no 6 year-old has won since Mill House in 1963.

What some won’t tell you is that only three 6-year-olds have run in the race since then which makes the ‘stat’ useless despite the fact that, on reading the ‘stat’, many will simply put a line through Long Run right away.

Stats are best used with care and from a foundation of full information about those who qualify to be included in the stat range – especially the losers.

Right, on to today’s Eider Chase at Newcastle.

The key stat here is that horses who have carried at least 5lbs more than the average weight for the race have a strong record.  After running various filters the best result comes from combining that information with the number of horses aged 8, 9 or 10 who’ve contested the past 12 runnings.

39 horses in these combined categories have taken part in the past 12 Eider Chases. £100 on each of them at Betfair odds would have cost you £3,900 in stakes and brought a profit, from 7 winners, of £5,714, a return on investment (ROI) of 246.5% (100% being break even).

A strong word of caution here – much of the profit was contributed by one winner, Thyne and Thyne Again in 2004 who returned a Betfair SP of 44.8. (28/1 SP).  Hence the reason that using any stats I publish should be looked at over the long term – they’ll offer some historical guidance for today’s race, but you will see that you’d have had 5 losing years among the 12 runnings based on these stats.

Without Average Weight Stat

Out of interest, removing that average weight stat and just using the age only basis of 8, 9 and 10 gives you the following:

122 bets: 10 winners: £484 profit at £100 stakes, an ROI of 104% – take out Thyne and Thyne Again from that and you have a substantial loss.

Anyway, today’s qualifiers are:

Belon Gale

Giles Cross

Good luck with your betting today and thanks for looking in

Joe

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